The Oz Hole — Tech Tracker

CASH LEDGER

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Cash Available

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Total Injected

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Deployed (cost)

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% Deployed

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Date	Type	Amount	Balance After	Note

Type

Amount ($)

Note

POSITIONS

0 OPEN

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	Ticker	Shares	Avg Cost	Current	Mkt Value	Return	Status	Note

Select positions to close · 0 selected

WATCHLIST

5 NAMES

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	Ticker	Type	Status	Price	Entry Zone	M* FV	Lock-up	Thesis

Select names to remove · 0 selected

Ticker or Company Name

DECISION LOG

2 ENTRIES

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CBRS — Cerebras Systems

WATCHING

MAY 25, 2026

At $253.50, CBRS is trading at a 341% premium to Morningstar's fair value of $188.94. Bull case is real — 76% YoY revenue growth, $20B OpenAI deal, AWS Bedrock integration, 47% net margin. But 86% UAE revenue concentration and 104x P/S ratio mean we are paying for a story, not a valuation. Lock-up expires November 14, 2026. Target entry zone: $195–$215 post-lockup or on a significant catalyst dip.

Missing further upside if CBRS climbs from $253. Accepted — paying 341% above fair value at this portfolio size is negative EV.

Enter a fractional position ($1–2). Rejected — too small to matter, creates psychological attachment without meaningful upside.

PORTFOLIO — Day 1

HOLD CASH

MAY 25, 2026

Holding full $100 in cash. No IPOs currently priced for retail entry at a compelling valuation. CBRS just listed — needs post-lockup observation. Pre-IPO names not yet accessible. Patience is a position.

Opportunity cost of missing CBRS Day 1 pop (+68%). Accepted — negative EV on 20x oversubscribed IPO opens historically.

N/A — no viable alternative deployment targets at this time.

RULES OF ENGAGEMENT

7 STANDING ORDERS

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01

Cash deployment is the manager's call. Every hold and every deploy comes with a written thesis before the position is taken — no action without a documented reason.

02

No Day 1 IPO buys. Minimum 30-day observation window on any new listing unless thesis conditions are exceptional and documented.

03

Position sizing: no single position exceeds 40% of total capital. Protects against a single bad call wiping the portfolio.

04

Every decision includes a documented alternative — what was considered and rejected, and the specific reason why.

05

Post-mortems are mandatory on any position that moves ±15% or more. Learning happens at the extremes — review both wins and losses.

06

Monthly $100 injection on the 5th. Whether and when to deploy it is part of the exercise — holding is a decision too.

07

Full asset-class latitude expands as the thesis library grows. Earn it position by position. AI/Tech first, then broader exposure.

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Rules exist to prevent emotional decisions, not good ones. They can be updated with documented rationale.